Photo: Brynn Anderson/AP Images.Are you ready for President Trump? A political science professor at Stony Brook University thinks the statistical odds of Donald Trump becoming the next president are between 97% and 99%.
According to U.S. News & World Report, Professor Helmut Norpoth developed a statistical model that's correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912. There's only one exception: the 1960 presidential election.
Norpoth says his statistical forecast shows that Trump's chances of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton are at 97%. Meanwhile, Trump's chances of defeating Bernie Sanders are at 99%.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said in a forecast presentation, according to the school’s newspaper, The Statesman. Though he did add that this will happen “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”
The model also predicted that if either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio win the GOP nomination, Hillary Clinton would edge them both out in a general election match-up.
The model's predictions contradict the most recent Real Clear Politics poll numbers, which actually show Clinton beating Trump in a head-to-head face-off, by about 3.4 points. And RCP has Sanders up over Trump by 8 points.
Like what you see? How about some more R29 goodness, right here?
Ruth Bader Ginsburg Is Publishing A New Book — & It Sounds Epic
Canada's Feminist Leader Is Coming To America, Plus More Stories
Think About This Advice The Next Time You Hesitate